Anita M. McGahan

You can’t make intelligent investments within your organization unless you understand how your whole industry is changing. If the industry is in the midst of radical change, you’ll eventually have to dismantle old businesses. If the industry is experiencing incremental change, you’ll probably need to reinvest in your core. The need to understand change in your industry may seem obvious, but such knowledge is not always easy to come by. Companies misread clues and arrive at false conclusions all the time. Sotheby’s, for example, invested in online auctions (its own Web site as well as a venture with Amazon) as if the Internet were just another channel; in truth, the new technology represented a fundamental shock to the industry’s structure.

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Reprint: R0410E 

It&#8217;s fairly obvious: To make intelligent investments within your organization, you need to understand how your whole industry is changing. But such knowledge is not always easy to come by. Companies misread clues and arrive at false conclusions all the time.
To truly understand where your industry is headed, you have to take a long-term, high-level look at the context in which you do business, says Boston University professor Anita McGahan. She studied a variety of businesses from a cross section of industries over a ten-year period, examining how industry structure affects business profitability and investor returns. Her research suggests that industries evolve along one of four distinct trajectories&#8212;radical, progressive, creative, and intermediating&#8212;that set boundaries on what will generate profits in a business. These four trajectories are defined by two types of threats. The first is when new, outside alternatives threaten to weaken or make obsolete core activities that have historically generated profits for an industry. The second is when an industry&#8217;s core assets&#8212;its resources, knowledge, and brand capital&#8212;fail to generate value as they once did.
Industries undergo radical change when core assets and core activities are both threatened with obsolescence; they experience progressive change when neither are jeopardized. Creative change occurs when core assets are under threat but core activities are stable, and intermediating change happens when core activities are threatened while core assets retain their capacity to create value.
If your company&#8217;s innovation strategy is not aligned with your industry&#8217;s change trajectory, your plan for achieving returns on invested capital cannot succeed, McGahan says. But if you understand which path you&#8217;re on, you can determine which strategies will succeed and which will backfire.

How Industries Change

Reprint: R0410E It’s fairly obvious: To make intelligent investments within your organization, you need to understand how your whole industry is changing. But such knowledge is not always easy to come by. Companies misread clues and arrive at false conclusions all the time. To truly understand where your industry is headed, you have to take a long-term, high-level look at the context in which you do business, says Boston University professor Anita McGahan. She studied a variety of businesses from a cross section of industries over a ten-year period, examining how industry structure affects business profitability and investor returns. Her research suggests that industries evolve along one of four distinct trajectories— radical , progressive , creative , and intermediating —that set boundaries on what will generate profits in a business. These four trajectories are defined by two types of threats. The first is when new, outside alternatives threaten to weaken or make obsolete core activities that have historically generated profits for an industry. The second is when an industry’s core assets —its resources, knowledge, and brand capital—fail to generate value as they once did. Industries undergo radical change when core assets and core activities are both threatened with obsolescence; they experience progressive change when neither are jeopardized. Creative change occurs when core assets are under threat but core activities are stable, and intermediating change happens when core activities are threatened while core assets retain their capacity to create value. If your company’s innovation strategy is not aligned with your industry’s change trajectory, your plan for achieving returns on invested capital cannot succeed, McGahan says. But if you understand which path you’re on, you can determine which strategies will succeed and which will backfire.

How Industries Change

Summary.

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