Research: How School Shootings Are Felt in Local Economies

Every fatal school shooting leaves a community in shock, mourning the irreplaceable loss of lives. But the ripple effects of mass violence extend beyond immediate horror, quietly disrupting the daily rhythms and shared spaces that sustain community life. The United States witnessed 1,843 school shootings between 2013 and 2024, averaging nearly two events per week, and 57 times more than all other G7 countries combined. These startling numbers underscore that school shootings have become a persistent and distinctive challenge in the American context. While the direct human toll of these events is evident, a new line of research reveals a less obvious consequence: a sustained decline in everyday local community consumption. Our forthcoming study in the Journal of Marketing Research finds that in the aftermath of a fatal school shooting, people shop and dine out less, and they avoid public spaces, leading to measurable drops in local spending in the impacted county. These changes are driven primarily by heightened anxiety about public safety, rather than grief alone. In other words, it’s not just sadness that keeps people home, it’s fear. For CEOs and senior executives, these findings raise important questions about organizational resilience in the face of this recurring community-level trauma. In contexts where fatal violence disrupts not only lives but also local economic activity, firms must be prepared to respond in ways that go beyond routine crisis management. Our research highlights the need for strategic approaches that address both the psychological and behavioral dimensions of public hesitancy to return to shared spaces. Firms operating in affected communities may find that conventional recovery measures, such as reopening operations or resuming marketing, are insufficient to restore consumer confidence. Instead, trauma-informed marketing and communications become essential. This includes efforts to acknowledge community trauma, enhance the physical and procedural signals of safety in public-facing environments, and foster emotional reconnection through community engagement. These responses, while grounded in empathy, also help foster a sense of safety and trust, encouraging community re-engagement and contributing to long-term recovery for both people and local businesses. Measuring the aftermath in data. To examine how fatal school shootings affect community consumption, we first studied household-level grocery purchase data from NielsenIQ’s Homescan panel, focusing on 63 fatal school shootings between 2012 and 2019. We compared each household’s weekly spending before and after a shooting in its county, and then contrasted those changes with the same household’s behavior during the corresponding weeks in the previous year. We compared the difference in outcomes before and after a shooting to estimate the localized economic impact of a shooting while controlling for household-specific characteristics and seasonal trends. To validate these findings, we included a comparison with neighboring counties that did not experience a school shooting. The spending decline was significantly more pronounced in the directly affected counties. To assess whether these patterns extended beyond grocery purchases, we also analyzed store-level mobility and transaction data from SafeGraph and Advan for the years 2019 through 2022. These data included daily foot traffic and purchase activity at restaurants and food and beverage retailers. The analysis covered 44 fatal school shootings and compared trends in affected and unaffected areas. Finally, we conducted three controlled experiments with adult participants in the United States. Participants in these experiments were randomly assigned to read a short news story about a fatal school shooting or another tragedy involving the loss of life, such as a fatal car accident or a drowning. They then answered questions about their emotional responses and their willingness to engage in public activities such as grocery shopping or dining out. The study also collected data on participants’ political ideology to test whether responses varied by worldview. What the data shows. Across these methods, a consistent story emerged, one that quantifies a “chill” on consumer activity after school shootings. In affected communities, household grocery purchases fell by about 2.1% over the six months following a fatal shooting. Supplemental analyses show that these declines are not indefinite; by the ninth month, household spending patterns typically return to baseline levels, suggesting that the impact, while significant, is time-bound. Spending at restaurants and bars dropped more steeply at 8%. And combining all food and beverage-related retailers (from supermarkets to convenience stores), overall spending declined about 3%. These percentages translate to lost sales to the tune of $5.4 million for a county’s retailers in the six months post-shooting, a significant setback, especially for small businesses that already operate on narrow margins. Why does spending contract? The results suggest it’s driven by behavioral avoidance rooted in anxiety. Households not only spent less money, but they also made fewer grocery shopping trips and visited fewer store aisles or departments when they ventured out. This contraction in activity aligns with a psychological reaction of fear: Shoppers shortening or avoiding outings due to worry that public places might not be safe. In the controlled experiments, participants who read about a school shooting expressed significantly lower desire to visit a grocery store or restaurant that week, and they reported higher anxiety about being in public spaces. Crucially, they did not report greater intent to shop online or entertain themselves at home as a substitute. Could grief or sadness alone be making people too depressed to shop? Unlikely. If grief were the motivating factor, one might expect increased comfort consumption at home or other grief-coping behaviors, which were not observed. What about guilt or distraction by the news? Our experimental evidence suggests that these were also not the primary drivers in the observed drop in spending. The evidence pointed squarely at anxiety; specifically, fear that “it could happen to me next,” was the key driver. In the experiments, anxiety levels were the strongest predictor of someone avoiding public places after a shooting report, far more than sadness or abstract reflections on mortality. Communities don’t respond similarly. The magnitude of the consumption decline varies with community context, particularly political culture. In more liberal-leaning counties, the drop in grocery spending was about double that of conservative-leaning counties (a 2.4% decline vs. 1.3%, respectively). The experiments mirrored this: Self-identified liberals reported greater anxiety and stronger intentions to avoid public spaces after a school shooting than conservatives did. Political psychology suggests that liberals and conservatives tend to explain mass shootings differently. Liberals are more likely to see them as reflecting systemic problems (e.g., gun control failures or cultural issues), which implies an ongoing threat that could recur. This mindset can heighten fear, leading to more caution in public. Conservatives, on the other hand, often view such shootings as isolated acts by deranged individuals, a perspective that can make the event seem less predictive of future danger. Consistent with these interpretations, liberal participants in our study felt more anxiety about being in public and thus pulled back more sharply on public consumption activities. In total, these findings provide the first quantitative confirmation that the economic toll of a school shooting radiates out into the community, even among people not directly victimized. Unlike a natural disaster that physically wrecks stores, the damage here is less visible. For business leaders and policymakers, this should serve as a wake-up call. While a few high-profile incidents, such as Parkland, Sandy Hook, and Uvalde, have prompted visible business and community responses, most fatal school shootings pass without any coordinated local action. Yet our data show that the economic and emotional fallout extends across all incidents, not just the widely reported ones. Simply restoring operations doesn’t guarantee that customers will return. Emotional recovery and consumer confidence must be addressed, or the community may continue to experience an invisible erosion of shared public life and local connection. To help you prepare, we offer the following recommendations: Acknowledge the shock. Stand with the community. Businesses that show they care about what the community is going through can build trust at a time when people’s faith in safety is shaken. Of course, a world in which school shootings regularly disrupt community life is not one we should accept. While this article focuses on how businesses can support healing in the aftermath, it is not meant to suggest that such tragedies are inevitable or should be treated as routine. As such, it is critical for businesses to publicly acknowledge the tragedy and demonstrate solidarity with the community. This means proactive, compassionate communication and visible support, rather than pretending that everything is “business as usual.” Start communicating immediately. This might take the form of placing messages on storefront marquees, posting condolences and resources on social media, or speaking at community vigils. For example, after a 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, many area businesses immediately expressed solidarity. Restaurants provided free meals to first responders and families, and shops posted signs like “MSD Strong” in their windows. Such gestures signal to residents that businesses are grieving with them. Create solidarity through action. In the weeks after the Parkland shooting, local eateries and service providers noticed a wave of reservation cancellations and customer no-shows as the community grappled with shock. Rather than suffer in silence, dozens of these businesses banded together with the local Chamber of Commerce to organize a large charity event. Branded “We Are Stoneman Douglas,” the event was a food and wine festival hosted at a country club, featuring stations from more than 30 local restaurants and merchants who donated their time and wares. The proceeds went to a victims’ fund and local counseling centers. This initiative served a dual purpose: It raised money for those affected, but it also offered a positive reason for people to come out of their homes and gather again in a safe, supportive environment. Attendees later noted that seeing beloved local businesses invested in recovery made them feel proud and more willing to venture out gradually. Solidarity can also mean taking a stand on the broader issues. In the Parkland case, some businesses went as far as changing company policies to signal alignment with community values. Nationally, Dick’s Sporting Goods garnered headlines when CEO Ed Stack announced the retailer would stop selling assault-style rifles and raise the age limit for all gun sales in its stores, as a direct response to Parkland. More notably, it lobbied Congress for stronger gun control laws, including universal background checks and a ban on high-capacity magazines. This wasn’t just a retail policy change, it was a public commitment to advocate for safety at the national level. Similarly, Levi Strauss & Co. launched a $1 million Safer Tomorrow Fund to support grassroots gun-violence prevention efforts, partnered with advocacy organizations like Everytown for Gun Safety, and helped convene a coalition of business leaders pushing for legislative action. While such policy stances are complex business decisions, these instances, it resonated with many consumers. It told the public that the company was willing to forgo some sales to stand in solidarity with the students. Not every business can or should take political positions, but every business can acknowledge tragedy and offer support in its own authentic way. Whether it’s giving employees paid time off to volunteer or attend funerals, or simply collaborating with other local firms to coordinate relief efforts, these gestures build a reservoir of public trust. Customers who see this are more likely to view local businesses as part of the community fabric, rather than faceless providers of goods. Empathy and solidarity are not just humane responses; they are the foundation for any recovery in consumer confidence. As our research indicates, people are anxious about re-entering routine life. It reassures residents that local businesses aren’t oblivious to their fears, creating an emotional bridge back to normalcy. Signal safety through environment and design. Once basic solidarity is established, the next challenge is more operational: How can businesses help community members feel safe returning to shared spaces? While public policy plays a central role in preventing future tragedies, businesses can still shape the immediate environment in ways that foster a sense of security and care. If anxiety is the main barrier keeping people away, then companies must proactively manage the physical and psychological sense of safety in their stores, restaurants, and venues. This goes beyond normal security measures; it’s about thoughtfully designing the customer experience to signal that public environments are protected, cared for, and responsive to new concerns. Visual cues of safety can help allay public anxiety. For instance, a store might bring in extra uniformed security guards or local police officers to visibly patrol the premises for however long they feel it’s necessary. Upgrading entry protocols, such as implementing bag checks for large events or installing metal detector wands at stadium gates, may be appropriate in soft-target areas. These measures should be balanced carefully to avoid creating bottlenecks or additional stress. Practical steps like improving parking lot lighting, trimming hedges or obstructions around entrances, and posting emergency evacuation routes visibly can also help customers feel more at ease. Another way is by offering alternative shopping modes that minimize exposure. For example, retailers might temporarily expand curbside service or designate “order online, pick up in store” parking spots to serve customers who are hesitant to enter the premises. Some businesses in Uvalde adopted similar practices, making clear that customers could be served without setting foot inside a physical location. Likewise, stores could introduce “quiet hours” or special morning openings to offer more controlled environments. Inspired by accommodations for neurodiverse or senior shoppers, this approach allows those experiencing trauma to ease back into routine public consumption. Finally, collaborating with local law enforcement creates a safety net around commercial districts. Increased police patrols in shopping areas, quick communication channels (like text alert systems) for any threats, and community-watch programs can all contribute to a more secure atmosphere. While no one can guarantee that violence won’t strike again, these steps collectively show customers that businesses are not taking chances with their safety. It’s a way of saying, “We know you’re on edge, and we’re doing everything we reasonably can to make you feel safe here.” Such assurances are critical to coaxing people back to public life, which in turn is critical for economic recovery. Restore emotional connection through community engagement. To truly recover, local businesses and leaders need to help the community heal. This calls for trauma-informed marketing and community engagement that prioritize empathy, connection, and a sense of shared resilience. One approach is for businesses to become conveners of community solidarity events. After the 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting, for example, Newtown’s downtown merchants’ association worked with the town to host monthly “Newtown Strong” nights, where shops stayed open late and donated portions of proceeds to a local charity supporting victims’ families. These events were as much about giving locals a reason to gather and comfort each other as they were about shopping. By providing a space and occasion for the community to unite (often featuring commemorative ribbons, moments of silence, or student performances), businesses signaled that it was okay to enjoy an evening out again, that healing does not mean forgetting. Turnouts at such events gradually grew over time, showing a slow rebuilding of public life. Another key strategy is trauma-informed marketing, adjusting your messaging and outreach to be sensitive to what the community has endured. Traditional advertising that is too cheerful or aggressively promotional may ring hollow or even offend in the wake of tragedy. Instead, businesses might focus on messages of community resilience and appreciation. For instance, a retailer could run a simple campaign thanking locals for supporting each other or share stories of heroism and kindness that emerged from the crisis. This creates a positive narrative of hope and continuity. It tells customers: “We’re invested in this community’s future.” For example, a local bank might collaborate with the school district on a “Healing Through Art” contest, exhibiting student artwork about hope after violence, and host a public gallery night. Marketing funds that might normally go to billboards or slick ads can be reallocated to support more community-centric projects. The return-on-investment comes in the form of goodwill and restored engagement, which, while intangible, are the precursors to the return of economic activity. Public-private partnerships can amplify these efforts. Businesses could coordinate with nonprofits, churches, and local government programs that specialize in trauma and recovery. After the Parkland shooting, a nonprofit called Parkland Cares was established to fund mental health counseling for anyone affected. Local businesses contributed to Parkland Cares and helped publicize its services. Some restaurants even inserted flyers about free counseling hotlines into takeout bags. Similarly, in Buffalo, after a mass shooting at a Tops supermarket, the store worked with state and federal agencies to host mental health counsellors on-site during the first weeks of reopening, so shoppers could privately talk to someone if overwhelmed. Above all, patience and authenticity are paramount. A community’s sense of safety and normalcy will return gradually, through consistent demonstration that everyone, including businesses, is committed to healing. By the time people are ready to dine out, take shopping trips, and enjoy local entertainment, those businesses that showed empathy and support will be the first places people want to support. . . . School shootings leave deep emotional scars that extend far beyond the immediate tragedy. They disrupt the fabric of daily life, eroding not just a community’s sense of safety but also its ability to gather, connect, and heal. As our research shows, even routine activities like shopping or dining out can become fraught in the wake of such trauma. Recovery is not as simple as unlocking the doors and restocking the shelves. It calls for leadership rooted in empathy, with a deliberate effort to restore trust, signal safety, and foster connection. Businesses cannot prevent mass violence, nor should they be expected to. But they can be visible, compassionate partners in helping communities move forward. By showing solidarity, redesigning spaces for safety, and engaging deeply in community healing, businesses contribute to more than just economic renewal. They help rebuild the social and emotional foundations that make communities resilient. The road to “normalcy” after unthinkable violence is long, but with empathy-driven strategies, it is a road that businesses and communities can walk together toward a better day.

Research: How School Shootings Are Felt in Local Economies

Summary.

Partner Center