How Many Colleges Should You Apply to?

A while back, I chatted with a friend whose son applied to roughly 20 colleges — an extreme number to be sure. Regardless, the investment paid off. He ended up getting into one of his reach schools, despite being rejected by many lower-ranked universities (and by some higher-ranked ones as well). The truth is, many students would benefit from this strategy. While I’m not suggesting students throw their hat into the ring 20 times, there is a real benefit to applying to a larger number of schools. The reason is simple. College admission decisions can be idiosyncratic. Typically, there is no precise formula for getting into your dream school. Though most universities are transparent that academic accomplishments matter, many consider a handful of other criteria, including community involvement, extracurriculars, background, and character. Moreover, recent debates about the value of the SAT highlight how similar schools can reach different conclusions about a given applicant. Berkeley, for instance, won’t use SAT scores in the application process while Stanford traditionally requires them (though the school has made them optional for the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 school years due to Covid). In short, schools vary in their capacity, goals, resources, and focus, leaving considerable guesswork to applicants about where they might get in. Applying to more colleges, then, is a relatively cheap way to up your chances of finding a match that satisfies three criteria: You get in You’ll be happy and successful there You’ll have the opportunity get merit aid and financial assistance (if needed) The Case for Applying to More Colleges To see the value of applying to more schools, it’s helpful to understand the psychology of decision-making and how it plays into college application decisions. Research by economist Amanda Pallais found that a $6 fee was enough to deter students from submitting an extra application that would up their chances of attending college. In her study, Pallais looked at how many schools students sent their ACT scores to. It used to be that students could send their scores to three schools for free, and then pay $6 for each additional school. The majority of students followed the default, and sent their scores to just three schools. However, when the ACT changed their policy to allow students to send four scores for free, application decisions shifted dramatically — and the majority of students switched to sending applications to four schools (aside from the $6, any additional application costs stayed the same). But even more surprising was that this small change had a meaningful impact on student outcomes. Students started applying to a broader range of schools. The change seemed particularly useful for low-income students, who on average ended up attending more selective schools as a result. The financial value of this is large: a back of the envelope calculation suggests that low-income students gained about $10,000 in lifetime earnings as a result. The fact that the effect was most pronounced for lower-income students suggests that this change may help to level the playing field as well. This outcome is especially impressive considering that students could have achieved it for just six extra dollars before the new policy went into effect. It echoes a broader literature that highlights the ways in which modest tweaks at the application stage can lead to large gains for applicants. Ten thousand dollars of additional lifetime earnings in exchange for taking the time to complete one more application is a pretty good deal. That said, for some applicants, there are a few potential obstacles that may accompany applying to more schools. The good news is that they can be overcome. Obstacle #1: The cost. People might wonder about the downsides of applying to more schools, such as the cost. But, while each additional application costs money (e.g. Harvard, where I am a professor, charges a $75 application fee for its undergraduate program), schools will often waive the fee in cases where it would create a financial hardship. For example, Harvard waives the fee for students whom the fee would be a hardship, without any additional documentation required. If college application costs are a problem for a student or their family, waiving the fee is an option they should explore. (High school guidance counselors can help to navigate this process as well.) Obstacle #2: The gamble. People might also wonder if rolling the dice too many times, hoping to get lucky, will land them at a school that is too hard and leave them worse off than had they applied to a smaller pool. But that is not what the evidence shows. In one experiment, economists Caroline Hoxby and Sarah Turner nudged high-achieving, low income students to apply to more selective colleges and found that their academic performance was just as good as the performance of students in the control group, who attended less selective schools on average. Moreover, additional research by economists Jonathan Smith, Matea Pender, and Jessica Howell suggests that roughly 40% of students would likely have gotten into more selective schools than the one they ultimately attended, which they refer to as “undermatching.” This effect is more pronounced among lower income households, where students tend to apply to fewer schools. While it’s a mistake to evaluate schools solely based on their selectivity — there are many other factors to consider (curriculum, majors, location, social support, class sizes, etc.) — this should reduce concerns that students will end up at a school that is too hard. Obstacle #3: The time commitment. Finally, people might wonder whether it’s just too time consuming to apply to more schools. From a behavioral economics perspective, it’s easy to understand why. Even though parts of the college application process have become much easier with the common app, time costs remain a real concern, as some schools differ in, for example, essay requirements. The benefits — higher probability of graduating from college, better financial aid packages, and a better school match — accrue over time, whereas the time it takes to complete applications occurs now. Moreover, it’s easy to be overconfident about the chances of getting in at any one place. Combined with the complexity of the overall system and the sometimes-shrouded nature of the admissions process, it can be tempting to skip the extra steps. In this case, I would encourage applicants to think hard about the costs versus the benefits. In terms of lifetime value, graduating from college is important. College graduation has large, causal effects on income. For instance, research by economists Jonathan Smith, Joshua Goodman, and Michael Hurwitz looked at students in Georgia, comparing students who just made the cut off to gain admission to four-year state schools to students who just missed the cut off. They found that enrollment in a public four-year institution increased the students’ household incomes around age 30 by 20% — and even more for lower income students. In addition, with growing concerns of college debt, applying to more schools has the added appeal of increasing the chances that students will find a strong financial aid package. In fact, many applicants with financial needs might be surprised by some of the aid packages they are eligible to receive should they proactively seek more information. Of course, none of this replaces the fact that we still need innovation at the systemic and institutional levels to truly create an efficient and fair college ecosystem. But in the meantime, making sure that students apply to enough schools can be an important step in ensuring a better outcome for more young people. While there is no “magic number” of schools students should apply to, the results from Pallais’ paper shows that moving from three to four applications led to impressive gains. The College Board suggests that five to eight might be enough. U.S. News and World Reports offers a range of four to eight. The benefits might be larger for students with more uncertainty (e.g. students with hard-to-assess academic profiles or students for whom aid levels will be important). Students should remember that it’s not really about choosing a perfect number. Before the application stage, they should dedicate some time to vetting colleges to get a sense of where might be a good fit and where their time will be best spent. Not all students need to apply to more colleges. But for the majority of applicants who currently plan to apply to four or fewer schools (or even not apply at all), it’s important to consider the potential benefits of putting yourself out there, just a few more times. In the end, an extra afternoon or two of completing college applications is a small price to pay for a reward that can last a lifetime.

How Many Colleges Should You Apply to?

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